Close Menu
    Facebook X (Twitter) Instagram
    Facebook Instagram Threads
    Global BiodefenseGlobal Biodefense
    Subscribe
    • Featured News
    • Funding
    • Directory
    • Jobs
    • Events
    Global BiodefenseGlobal Biodefense
    Biosurveillance

    A New Standard for Reporting Epidemic Prediction Research

    By Global Biodefense StaffOctober 23, 2021
    Share
    Facebook LinkedIn Reddit Email

    “EPIFORGE” guidelines aim to improve quality, usefulness of epidemic forecasting manuscripts

    An international panel has designed new guidelines to standardize how scientists report research that involves forecasting and prediction of how epidemics of infectious diseases unfold. Simon Pollett of the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Maryland, United States, and colleagues present the guidelines, called EPIFORGE, in the open-access journal PLOS Medicine on October 19th.

    When reporting the results of certain kinds of medical research, such as clinical trials or systematic reviews of prior studies, researchers follow standardized checklists designed specifically for manuscripts published in those fields. Such guidelines are thought to improve the quality and usefulness of manuscripts; for instance, by making the research easier to understand, apply, or reproduce.

    However, until now, no standard guidelines have existed for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research, despite the major impact of COVID-19 and other diseases for which epidemic predictions can have significant public health implications.

    To meet this need, a six-person steering committee assembled several dozen panelists from around the world who either conduct epidemic prediction research themselves or apply predictions for public-health policy making and other uses. The panelists engaged in a Delphi process, in which they participated in several rounds of evaluating, removing, and adding proposed items to the final set of guidelines, which they call EPIFORGE.

    The EPIFORGE checklist outlines 19 recommended items that manuscripts reporting epidemic predictions should include. For instance, one item calls for manuscripts to clearly outline the sources of any data that underlie their predictions. Another item calls for public availability of any computer code used to generate predictions.

    The panelists hope that EPIFORGE will set new standards for reporting epidemic prediction research, thereby improving the quality and impact of such reports. The also invite feedback on the EPIFORGE guidelines from other researchers, policy makers, medical journal reviewers, and additional stakeholders.

    “Infectious disease modeling is helping to guide the pandemic response,” coauthor Caitlin Rivers adds. “Right now, there are no clear standards for how results from models are reported. We brought together leaders from our field to define reporting standards so that models are better positioned to inform public health.”

    Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines. PLOS Medicine, 19 October 2021.

    COVID-19 Editor Pick Epidemiology Modeling-Simulation SARS-CoV-2
    Share. Facebook LinkedIn Reddit Email
    Previous ArticleData Shows Continued Vulnerability of Vaccinated Blood Cancer Patients to COVID-19
    Next Article CDC Confirms Bacterial Strain in Aromatherapy Spray Sold at Walmart in Melioidosis Outbreak

    Related Stories

    First Light Diagnostics Receives FDA Clearance for Rapid Anthrax Test

    December 5, 2023

    Chlorine Exposure Biomarkers in a Large Animal Model

    December 5, 2023

    ARPA-H Announces New Tiered Proposal Submission System to Reduce Applicant Barriers

    December 5, 2023

    Needle-Free Vaccine Patch Against Zika Virus

    December 2, 2023
    News Scan

    Biodefense Headlines – 30 November 2023

    News Scan November 30, 2023

    News highlights on health security threats and countermeasures curated by Global Biodefense This week’s selections include the largest ever outbreak of mpox in the DRC; launch of National Wastewater Surveillance Program dashboard; low uptake of COVID-19 boosters and flu vaccines;…

    Upcoming Events

    Mar 12
    Hybrid Hybrid Event
    March 12, 2024 - March 17, 2024

    2024 Fungal Genetics Conference

    Mar 21
    March 21, 2024 - March 23, 2024

    ASPPH 2024 Annual Meeting

    View Calendar

    Subscribe to Global Biodefense

    Get the latest news on pathogens and preparedness

    News on pathogens and preparedness for public health emergencies

    © 2023 Stemar Media Group LLC
    • About
    • Contact
    • Privacy
    • Subscribe

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.

    Global Biodefense places cookies on your device to enable the best user experience. By using our website, you agree to placement of these cookies. To learn more, read our Privacy Policy.OKPrivacy Policy