The death toll in China in the months immediately following the relaxation of strict zero-COVID policies was substantially higher than that reported through official channels, according to a new study published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
After almost 3 years of effectively suppressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, China announced a slight easing of its zero-COVID rules on November 11, 2022, and then a major relaxation on December 7, 2022. Scientists estimate that the ensuing wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused 1.41 million deaths in China during December 2022–February 2023.
COVID-19 deaths are related to a variety of health complications, including septic shock, multiorgan failure, respiratory failure, heart failure, and secondary infections. China’s official reports may underestimate the COVID-19 death toll by a factor of 17.
The difference between China’s official mortality reports and our estimates may stem from delays in hospital reporting, omission of deaths happening outside of hospitals, gaps in China’s vital registration system, or intentional reclassification after the insurance industry in China largely stopped covering COVID-19 in December 2022.
The unprecedented speed and severity of the wave in China is not surprising, given lack of infection-acquired immunity, moderate effectiveness of vaccines commonly administered in China, relatively low vaccine coverage in the oldest populations, and limited access to effective antiviral drugs.
Read the full paper:
Estimate of COVID-19 Deaths, China, December 2022–February 2023. Emerging Infectious Diseases, August 28, 2023
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