Close Menu
    Facebook X (Twitter) Instagram
    Facebook Instagram Threads
    Global BiodefenseGlobal Biodefense
    Subscribe
    • Featured News
    • Funding
    • Directory
    • Jobs
    • Events
    Global BiodefenseGlobal Biodefense
    Biosurveillance

    Avoiding Complacency When Assessing Pandemic Threat

    By Global Biodefense StaffOctober 16, 2014
    Pandemic Flu Virus Threat
    Credit: Shutterstock
    Share
    Facebook LinkedIn Reddit Email

    As our ability to assess the pandemic risk from strains of influenza virus increases with the latest scientific developments, we must not allow ourselves to become complacent that the most substantial threats have been identified, argue an international consortium of scientists.

    Steven Riley from Imperial College London says: “There are too many strains of influenza viruses out there in non-human hosts to make it feasible to make preparations against each one. Instead, we need to get better at assessing the pandemic risks so that we know where best to focus our efforts.”

    There have been five major pandemics in the past 100 years, the worst of which – the 1918 Spanish Flu – cost 50 million lives worldwide. Of these pandemics, three are thought to have spread from birds and one from pigs. However, pandemic influenza strains represent only a tiny fraction of the total diversity of influenza viruses that exist in nature; the threats posed by the majority of these viruses are poorly understood. Assessing which viruses pose the greatest risk of causing the next human pandemic is an enormous challenge.

    “At the moment, this assessment is largely driven by a simple idea: animal viruses that cause sporadic human infections pose a greater risk than viruses that have not been documented to infect humans,” stated Riley. “But in fact, none of the viruses that caused the major pandemics of the last century were detected in humans before they emerged in their pandemic form.”

    Assessing Pandemic Risk

    Writing in the journal eLife, scientists set out the steps that they consider necessary to increase our ability to assess pandemic risk. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the data it generates has the potential to transform the research community’s ability to predict the pandemic risk.

    However, it remains extremely difficult to predict just from a virus’s genome what symptoms it will elicit in its host – and hence how deadly the virus is. The researchers call for better integration of experimental data, computational methods and mathematical models, in conjunction with refinements to surveillance methodology.

    H1N1, H7N9 Highlight Need for Vigilance

    However, they say that scientific insights into non‐human influenza viruses must not give way to complacency that the most substantial threats have been identified and characterized. They point out that several recent strains including the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic virus and the recently emerged H7N9 viruses in China highlight the importance of remaining vigilant against as-yet unrecognized high risk viruses and the value of surveillance for influenza viruses in humans.

    “No one can say with anything close to a hundred percent certainty when or where the next pandemic will start or which virus will cause it,” says Dr. Colin Russell from the Department of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Cambridge. “We are getting much better at identifying and assessing potential threats, but we must be vigilant about surprises lurking around the corner.

    “We need to be prepared for a swift response, with coordinated action, to help mitigate the spread of the next pandemic virus. Without developing this ability to respond, we will have spent billions building systems just for watching the next pandemic unfold.”

    The research was supported in part by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics program of the US Department of Homeland Security and the National Institutes of Health.

    Read the paper at eLife: Science forum: Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    Source: University of Cambridge, adapted.

    Animal Models H1N1 H7N9 Influenza Pandemic
    Share. Facebook LinkedIn Reddit Email
    Previous ArticleProfectus Biosciences Awarded Funding for Ebola Vaccine
    Next Article Federal Contracts Roundup – Oct 16, 2014

    Related Stories

    Chlorine Exposure Biomarkers in a Large Animal Model

    December 5, 2023

    NanoViricides’ Phase 1 Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Highly Effective for Mpox and Smallpox

    November 14, 2023

    Pandemic Flu Has Many Potential Pathways

    October 19, 2023

    Strengthening Clinical Research Response to Outbreaks and Pandemics

    October 11, 2023
    News Scan

    Biodefense Headlines – 30 November 2023

    News Scan November 30, 2023

    News highlights on health security threats and countermeasures curated by Global Biodefense This week’s selections include the largest ever outbreak of mpox in the DRC; launch of National Wastewater Surveillance Program dashboard; low uptake of COVID-19 boosters and flu vaccines;…

    Upcoming Events

    Mar 12
    Hybrid Hybrid Event
    March 12, 2024 - March 17, 2024

    2024 Fungal Genetics Conference

    Mar 21
    March 21, 2024 - March 23, 2024

    ASPPH 2024 Annual Meeting

    View Calendar

    Subscribe to Global Biodefense

    Get the latest news on pathogens and preparedness

    News on pathogens and preparedness for public health emergencies

    © 2023 Stemar Media Group LLC
    • About
    • Contact
    • Privacy
    • Subscribe

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.