Modeling scientists from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have presented their first set of estimates of daily health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 in the U.S. for the next 4 months.
The forecast predicts that 41 states will need more ICU beds than what is currently available, 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50% or more before the current wave of the pandemic ends (defined as fewer than 10 deaths per day nationwide).
“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of IHME at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”
IHME intends to update their analysis regularly as a source of “real-time” information for hospital system administrators and local, state, and federal health policymakers.