A newly published report in The Lancet Regional Health—Americas by the Global Virus Network (GVN)—a consortium of top virologists from over 40 countries—issues an urgent call to action to mitigate the escalating threat of H5N1 avian influenza. The comprehensive analysis is a stark warning to global governments: failure to act decisively now could pave the way for another devastating pandemic.
The report arrives amid rising concern about the spillover of H5N1 into dairy cattle and humans across North America. With more than 1,000 infected U.S. dairy herds, over 70 confirmed human cases, and the first U.S. fatality, GVN experts say the virus has entered a phase of unprecedented risk—highlighting its evolving ability to infect mammals and the growing possibility of human-to-human transmission through genetic reassortment or mutation.
Widespread Transmission Across North America
The H5N1 virus is now confirmed to be circulating in all 50 U.S. states and across Canada. Since 2022, more than 168 million poultry have been culled as part of containment efforts. The scale of the outbreak has placed enormous strain on the agricultural sector, particularly poultry farms, where high-density operations and insufficient biosecurity practices contribute to rapid viral spread.
Mammalian Spillover Raises Red Flags
Of growing concern is the virus’s expanding host range. H5N1 has infected more than 1,000 U.S. dairy herds and led to at least 70 confirmed human cases, including the first documented human death in the United States. These cases underscore the virus’s ability to jump species barriers, with each new mammalian infection presenting an opportunity for genetic changes that could enable efficient human-to-human transmission.
Pandemic Potential Increasing
The simultaneous circulation of H5N1 and seasonal influenza viruses increases the likelihood of reassortment—when two different flu viruses combine their genetic material to create a novel strain. This process has been the catalyst for several past pandemics. Experts warn that a reassortant strain capable of efficient human transmission could emerge without warning, making early intervention and preparedness vital.
Insufficient Preparedness Measures
Despite limited surveillance efforts, public health experts warn that the current response is fragmented and lacks the coordination required to mitigate a fast-evolving viral threat. The absence of a unified testing infrastructure, delays in genomic data sharing, and a lack of preparedness plans for diagnostics, vaccines, and treatments leave significant gaps in the global health response.
“Understanding the current landscape of H5N1 infections is critical for effective prevention and response,” said Dr. Sten H. Vermund, Chief Medical Officer of the GVN and dean at the University of South Florida.
Despite surveillance efforts, public health experts warn current strategies remain fragmented and insufficient—particularly in safeguarding the human-animal interface. There is a notable absence of robust testing, data sharing, and preparedness planning in the event of a viral shift toward sustained human transmission.
GVN’s 10-Point Pandemic Preparedness Strategy
The GVN outlines a comprehensive, science-driven response plan, urging governments to act on the following priorities:
- Enhanced Surveillance: Ongoing animal testing, wastewater monitoring, and screening of farm workers.
- Rapid Genomic Data Sharing: Accelerated release and analysis of viral sequences to track mutation trends globally.
- Farm Biosecurity Upgrades: Universal adoption of PPE and decontamination protocols.
- Accessible Diagnostics: Rollout of self-testing kits for farm workers and access to early detection tools.
- Public Health Infrastructure: Funding surge for outbreak detection, contact tracing, and community outreach.
- Phenotype Prediction Tools: Investment in AI and bioinformatics to predict viral traits from genomic data.
- Vaccine R&D: Prioritizing rapid development pipelines for both animal and human vaccines.
- Therapeutics Rollout Plans: Preparedness for emergency distribution of antivirals and treatments.
- Clinical Trials Mobilization: Frameworks for real-time studies on novel virus strains and interventions.
- Global Coordination: International collaboration for research, data sharing, and resource allocation.
“Initiatives should focus on biosecurity and educating the public about poultry product handling and exposure risks,” said Dr. Peter Palese, a GVN director and leading influenza researcher.
Policy Gaps and U.S. Response Challenges
While the U.S. Department of Agriculture recently announced a $1 billion response plan, experts remain skeptical. Workforce reductions in key public health roles, suspended scientific workshops, and an overemphasis on economic rather than zoonotic risk have raised questions about national preparedness.
“We believe trust and stakeholder buy-in—especially among farm workers—is critical,” noted Dr. Elyse Stachler of the Broad Institute. The report stresses that global health systems must learn from COVID-19 and prepare before the H5N1 virus evolves further. The high historical mortality rate of H5N1 in humans and the expanding mammalian transmission are red flags not to be ignored.
Call to Action
The Global Virus Network’s message is clear: a reactive stance is not enough. Proactive investment, coordination, and rapid implementation of the 10-point plan are needed now to reduce the risks of a full-scale pandemic.
“The situation with H5N1 demands heightened vigilance and cross-sector collaboration,” said Dr. Christian Bréchot, GVN Vice Chair and former Director of France’s INSERM. “We must act before the virus finds an efficient route to sustained human transmission.”
For more details on GVN’s work and how you can support global virology efforts, visit www.gvn.org
SOURCES & FURTHER READING: